[Deep analysis] The current situation and trend forecast of the Internet of Vehicles market

First, the trend of the front loading car networking market

In 2016, I predict that the Chinese market will reach a penetration rate of 19%, that is, 19% of new cars will be equipped with front-end networking models. We predict that they are slightly more optimistic than other similar companies. In 2020 this figure will reach 49% and the world will reach 55%. In 2013, China will reach 67%, which will become the world's largest car network pre-installation market.

Overview of the pre-installed car networking market in various regions

A few months ago, China National Automobile Corporation developed a report on the “13th Five-Year Plan” automobile industry. As a new car, it is estimated that the production and sales volume will reach 30 million from the government level, and we hope that our domestic independent manufacturers will reach 60% of sales. . Looking back on the past, last year's domestic sales accounted for 57.5% of joint ventures and 42.5% of domestic sales. From 2016 to 2020, the growth will be close to 20% to achieve the expected results of national planning. At least we can see that from the national top-level design and planning level, we hope that our domestic independent car manufacturers occupy an increasingly important position.

Second, the vehicle electronic front-end trend forecast

Review the trend of automotive electronics front-end. In the second generation of 1998-2006, there were basically more separate devices, because the hardware processing capability was weak, and different functions required different hardware to process.

By the third generation from 2005 to 2010, mainly because the processor is relatively strong, the car plays a major role, and the navigation and power amplifier units are dominant.

Now is the fourth generation, in addition to the car, more is to increase the networking capabilities, so that the car is connected to the network, whether through the T-Box form, or through the form of connectivity unit, through the mobile phone traffic connected to the network, there are Networking capabilities.

Development of automotive electronic front-end

Future trend

What is the next generation trend? More is that after 2018, devices with smart antennas will appear, integrating more communication capabilities, including V2V and V2X capabilities. At the same time, due to the upgrade of the vehicle's aerial components, the car body will be connected to the smart antenna by Ethernet to realize the upgrade of the car.

Speaking of remote upgrades, we have made a track to the global remote upgrade manufacturers. At present, Tesla is a yellow line. All ECUs can be made into new ones. Not long ago, the driver package was updated. In our traditional car factory, Jaguar and Land Rover. At the end of this year, the upgrade of the whole vehicle air components will be carried out, including the corresponding collections of Ford, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

Remote upgrade of each manufacturer

Third, the software operating system

From our observation, in 2015-2017, the operating system is showing a growing trend. The global market of QNX operating system is dominant. Different colors are divided into different regions in the global market. Blue indicates North America, red is Europe, and green is China. QNX has grown in the global market, with Microsoft in the global market weakening, mainly because Ford changed from SYNC to third generation and replaced by Microsoft with QNX.

In addition, Linux has become the second choice besides QNX, including private cloud Linux, including other products such as open Linux, and other categories are included in other operating systems, including real-time operating system products.

Operating system requirements in various regions

We made a statistics and forecast of the representative 15 car manufacturers, the operating system they used for the past three years. QNX is still very strong. In Ford, GM, Hyundai, Volkswagen, BMW, QNX is the most used. Secondly, most of Microsoft's car manufacturers have a tendency to decline, because Microsoft no longer supports car networking applications. Linux is mainly used in Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai, Citroen, Nissan, and SAIC, including Android, which is mainly used in modern and Nissan.

15 representative car factory operating system usage

The trend we have seen in China is that there are more windows CEs in the past, and there will be more switching to the Android system. And the next step for YunOS is also the trend. We have listed a few representative domestic car manufacturers, and the next step is to switch from windos to Android.

Domestic OEM software supplier list

For the operating system, we have listed all front-end operating systems. We analyze from two levels, one is through this operating system, for our car factory and for the first-tier suppliers, hardware car suppliers, and the value of consumers, QNX in 2B, the supplier Stronger, it is the most scored. For the consumer to come together, the BlackBerry is basically used very little, and gradually weakens. For YunOS, the actual effect and actual ecological aspects are limited to individual car manufacturers. For example, a car manufacturer such as SAIC, other supplier relationships are also growing.

Front-end operating system comparison analysis

Fourth, the typical pre-loaded car network representative enterprises

Mercedes-Benz recently released a global strategy, including all car networking and travel related products, all packaged. In different regions, North America, Europe, China, the previous car networking strategy names are different, it is packaged through Mercedes-Benz me unified.

Volvo, its product OnCall, including emergency rescue, vehicle fault diagnosis services, is free for ten years. The system connected via mobile phone is free for three years, using the Ericsson Connected Vehicle Cloud Platform. Through the cloud platform, the future of the Internet of Vehicles service can be better extended to other areas of the Internet of Things, including our home and medical fields. So what we mainly want to say is that Volvo's feature is that the service has been free for 10 years, and the service content is free. There are also cloud-based systems that can easily be extended to future IoT applications.

Baowo is an independent brand invested by Foton. It is mainly a regeneration of German brands. Its characteristic B-Link system is a very comprehensive application system, including any fault diagnosis, remote control and related systems that we think of, including remote component upgrades. Including 360-degree view, 360 degree view through mobile phone control, after the car stops, you can see the surrounding situation. There is also WIFI in the car, support for mobile phone interconnection in the car, and the service provided during the Beijing Auto Show announced the 00 promotion plan, which is the free service for the former 10,000 car buyers who can enjoy the free service of the lifetime car network, and the lifetime maintenance and warranty. It is a new-born brand, and the differentiated route is the most comprehensive car networking service.

Recently released on July 6-9, in the town of Yunqi, it has three cars, called the Internet car, and some features use the YunOS operating system, which has a unified user account to achieve user perception, including nature. Language understanding, integrated large component control, including in-car air conditioning, sunroof control, and some APP applications that support our future travel mission authorization, as well as on-demand warranty maintenance. For the post-market value, SAIC is not only doing the warranty maintenance of the software implementation process, but also changing the back-end own dealer system, at least in the event of a change, the next step will allow more third-party service companies to join, help Together he achieved the so-called on-demand maintenance, because it can convert the interests of former car manufacturers into dealers, maximize the interests of customers, and need to reorganize the system of pre-installed car networking services and include more third-party service systems.

Comparison of the development of several car manufacturers in the front-end field

We made a comparison of the above mentioned companies, including ACN, automatic collision warning, remote fault diagnosis, business service planning, vehicle data collection, in-vehicle WIFI, and air component upgrades, etc. The situation of realization, let everyone have an understanding and comparison.

5. How do consumers view the Internet of Vehicles?

Chinese consumers' interest in automotive-related services

This is our statistics on China's 2,000 consumers. We divide the car network pre-installation services into many categories, including transportation services, parking services, vehicle location services, weather forecasts, etc., different services, consumer interest, yellow. It is relatively weak, red is basically not interested, consumer interest is still relatively high, and gradually it is a growth trend.

Consumer safety

Level of interest in related content

This is the consumer's interest in driving safety related services, green indicates the US market, yellow is the European market, red China market, compared with 2015-2016, consumer interest is the growth trend, different local characteristics are different, consumers Interest is growing, but the willingness to pay for using features is not very high, and relatively maintains a moderately low level, so the model is very important, how to provide these services for consumers to accept.

in conclusion:

Front-mounted car networking, more oriented to different processors, or different functions, to deal with the trend of hardware convergence, to meet the development of space components upgrade, space component upgrade is not only need us to do the relevant ECU architecture improvements, more High-speed in-vehicle networks, such as high-speed Ethernet, enable air component upgrades. There is also the integration of autonomous driving and car networking. We are more and more using a single processing device to complete different control. We use the pre-controller method to partition different software capabilities.

Mobile phone interconnection, this is definitely a trend in the front-loading field, enabling more mobile content to be applied to the car. The mobile phone is not only connected to the big platform of the car, but also the mobile phone and the rear view mirror and the driving instrument can be interconnected.

There is also natural language understanding, on the one hand to do networking, because natural language understanding requires online language processing capabilities. On the other hand, more will simplify future human-computer interaction, which will have a great impact on our industry.

Vehicle networking applications are deployed in the cloud, not just in the car networking itself, but also in access to future scalable IoT applications. For front-loading, including post-installation practitioners, it is not just about how to do business, but also what consumers are willing to pay, what consumers are interested in, what kind of business model consumers can accept, this It is a very important topic.

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