Close up time? Subaru and Infiniti made hard

The Chinese government no longer encourages foreign investors to "invest in vehicle manufacturing." A joint venture executive said that from the current published policy, only the concept of extensive, there is no specific quantifiable after the implementation of the standard, if the change policy is still Rely on the interpretation and reinterpretation between various departments, then "the problem will be very complicated."

For the Chinese auto industry, the sun is new every day. The huge market of 1.3 billion people not only represents wealth and opportunities, but also means changes and unexpected events.

Last Thursday, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data showing that in January, the national automobile production and sales volume both fell sharply year-on-year and year-on-year, including 1.398 million units of sales, a year-on-year decrease of 26.39%.

However, this is not entirely bad news for car manufacturers. After all, the Chinese government no longer encourages foreign investors to "invest in vehicle manufacturing." "Lesser" seems to have become a necessity. However, the specific "who" is less, how a "less" law, policy makers left to the industry is an open-ended answer.

Many car dealers are stepping up their assessment of the potential impact of this policy change. Like the president of Fuji Heavy Industries, they openly admit that “the environment is changing and the factory is not optimistic” is a minority, and it is more like Nissan and Ford are keeping silence. Most of them. In addition, the fact that the site of the Infiniti-made home base that was exposed by the media in November last year finalized Dalian was also a result of the introduction of the policy.

What was good? On January 30th, China officially implemented the fifth revised “Industrial Catalogue for Foreign Investment,” which stipulates that the Chinese government decided not to encourage foreign automakers to apply to China through policies such as preferential tax treatment and simplified approval procedures. investment.

The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission explained the change: The Chinese government removed foreign investment “Items for vehicle manufacturing from the encouragement category”, which is aimed at “promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry”. At the same time, in order to “cultivate strategic emerging industries,” we have instead “added key components for new energy vehicles in the encouraged category”.

Comprehensive context and the above-mentioned person's analysis, the "investment vehicle manufacturing" removed from the encouragement category, there are many meanings: It may mean that multinational car manufacturers can no longer invest in the vehicle field in accordance with the original cost, the original plan; It may also mean that the entire vehicle project that does not satisfy the upgrading of the automobile industry can naturally no longer be pursued, but those who have made special contributions to the upgrading of the industry may also be specially authorized.

In a subsequent official statement, the major global car manufacturers almost invariably shifted this policy to dilute the impact of their business in China. However, according to the "Wall Street Journal" report, "These companies are evaluating privately China's move and the Chinese government's wide-range adjustment policy to further control the potential long-term impact of the auto industry, while worrying about potential cost increases and Chinese manufacturers. Increased competitiveness."

So what are the benefits that car dealers got during the “encouraged” period? In the early stage of investment, foreigners can enjoy a simplified approval process. During the period of operation, they can also enjoy various taxation concessions. These benefits include income tax, VAT, and import tariff reductions.

Policies "not encouraged". What kind of influence will foreign investors develop in China?

Previously it has been rumored that Fuji Heavy Industries, president of Fuji Heavy Industries, a manufacturer of Subaru, which is being made in China, said that “the situation is very serious and we are studying the corresponding countermeasures.”

As China’s largest overseas automaker, GM wrote in a statement: “We hope that this new guideline can minimize the negative impact on GM’s future plans in China.”

General Motors CEO Exxon said recently that it is working to transfer more production operations to China, especially its luxury brand Cadillac, and plans to build two or four new factories in China by 2015.

But on Exxon's list of risks, only the "cost of foreign car companies doing business in China" does not mean that China's business is sluggish.

“Different companies have different situations,” said a senior manager of a car company. “For example, if a new factory of GAC Toyota is built next to an old factory, it can be interpreted as an expansion and it will not be subject to post-change policies. Constraints; however, Renault intends to expand its investment in China, and Nissan’s plans for domestically produced Infiniti will be affected."

In its opinion, the policy has at least two meanings. First, it cannot be approved completely. Second, it is approved under certain conditions. The latter is exactly what GM CEO Ixon said about "cost risk" and "political correctness risk."

The risk of political correctness costs is very easy to understand. The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the relationship between General Motors and Shanghai Auto is an advantage. The former expects the latter to provide asylum. Therefore, in the view of GM, the policy shift may only be paying more tax costs.

And "political correctness" has a more complex and extensive meaning.

At the end of 2011, the government promulgated the "Automotive Industry Development Policy," which clearly stipulated that the entry threshold for foreign-invested projects should be improved, including the requirement that new passenger vehicle projects must have matching engine production, and continue to insist on foreign investment in vehicle projects. %-share limit.

Then, according to the Toyota Motor plan, GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. began production of a new inline 4-cylinder engine (AR engine) in October 2011. At the same time, Changchun's second plant will also be put into production this year. And then, Toyota will produce the core components of hybrid cars in China: batteries and motors. According to Toyota’s plan, by 2015, the production and sales volume of the Chinese market will reach at least 1.5 million units, which is a gap between Toyota’s 880,000 units in China and 600,000 units.

Ford Motor Co., Ltd. also has a lot of expansion in China. One of the company’s senior executives, who declined to be named, said that although the company’s concerns that China’s new policy may imply that tariffs on imported machinery and processing equipment would be raised, Ford Motors believes that this will not be true. It has a major financial impact. “The current investment in China is safe. This is partly because Ford is investing in the western part of China. According to China’s policy, the benefits of investing in this area and the benefits of investing in other parts of China different."

The Volkswagen that plans to have a capacity of 3 million vehicles in 2014 is even more "well-behaved". In 2011, the four new plants of Volkswagen's two joint venture plants had a total of nearly one million production capacity in less than 12 projects. In the month, all were approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. This was not in line with the call for the development of the western region. It was a “playing code” that caters to new policies such as new energy sources.

The analysis of the electric vehicle seam in the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission shows that, as opposed to the removed vehicle investment project, the new energy project was added to the “key support project”.

“After the government has determined the direction of new energy development based on electric vehicles, only vehicle manufacturers that cater to this requirement can obtain government approval. As regards the substantive content of this regulation, it is not the most important issue. "Industry sources said.

According to the Volkswagen plan, the company will invest 14 billion euros in the Chinese market for plant construction and new product development between 2012 and 2016. In front of the policy, the general public has no intention of turning because the "investment will be used in a large part. For the development of new energy automotive technologies, such as the production of electric vehicles in China," said the relevant public sources, new energy vehicles, that is the Chinese government still intends to encourage foreign companies to invest heavily in one area.