Construction machinery 900 billion to wait for market excavation in the fourth quarter usher in recovery

Another "12th Five-Year Plan" has been released. Yesterday, the reporter learned that the “Twelfth Five-Year” development plan for China's construction machinery industry (hereinafter referred to as “Planning”) has been formally released, with statements on development strategies and targets. Yesterday, industry insiders analyzed various sub-sector opportunities in the industry.

Planning - 100 million scales to be marketed Excavate the "planning" The main problems and constraints from the development of the industry, the market demand forecast during the "12th Five-Year Plan", the "Twelfth Five-Year" development plan goals, development priorities and major tasks, policy recommendations Seven aspects of the measures and opinions on the industry elaborated and planned the development status and prospects of the industry, clarified that the industry development strategy is to promote the transformation of China’s construction machinery industry from a manufacturing country to a manufacturing powerhouse, and to form a host product and foundation with an international frontier level. The R&D and manufacturing system for technology and functional components; the main products have reached the international average advanced technology level, and China's construction machinery industry has been transformed from extensive, imitative, and quantitative models to scientific and technological innovations and profitable ones.

At the same time, the "Plan" also proposed the specific development goals of the industry during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. According to the structural adjustment transformation mode of growth, it is predicted that by 2015 China's construction machinery industry will reach a sales level of 900 billion yuan. The average growth rate is about 17%, of which about 26 billion US dollars export. In 2015, the industry’s sales revenue and exports both more than doubled over 2010.

Regarding this growth target, Zhang Zhongjie, a senior analyst in the equipment manufacturing industry of Essence Securities, believes that the slowdown in the growth rate of the industry in the future compared to the average growth rate of 27.5% in the past five years and the average growth rate of 23.8% in the past 10 years is The medium and long-term development trend also indicates that the market capacity of construction machinery is far from saturated, and the ceiling of the industry is still too early. In the next five years, the sales revenue of the industry will continue to increase. In terms of exports, most of China’s construction machinery exports to India, Brazil, and Russia will be exported. Emerging economies and the Middle East, most of which are the same as China's economic development stage and model, China's construction machinery will obtain a huge export market with superior cost-performance advantages.

Outlook – Expected to recover in the fourth quarter In terms of investment strategy, Zhang Zhongjie believes that in the future, the construction machinery industry will continue to trend upwards. Currently, the industry is under pressure in the short term. The tightening of credit and infrastructure and real estate investment will directly affect the downstream effective demand. It is expected that the 7 and 8 The traditional off-season sales are still sluggish in the month, and the third quarter may be the industry's worst time. Under the influence of social housing construction and water conservancy investment, the industry is expected to recover in the fourth quarter.

In the view of investors, the three factors that drive the construction machinery industry in the second half of the year are the construction of affordable housing, mergers and acquisitions and overseas expansion. It goes without saying that the construction of social housing will be quickened in the second half of the year. In addition, on the one hand, after the industry experienced a high degree of prosperity, the leading companies had the financial strength of mergers and acquisitions, and the tight funding faced great financial pressure on the merged companies, which prompted them to accept the conditions for mergers and acquisitions. In the coming year, with the emergence of mergers and acquisitions opportunities, more powerful companies will choose to expand their mergers and acquisitions; on the other hand, as the domestic construction machinery industry gradually enters a surplus cycle, and foreign industry recovery will continue to deepen, the industry will start With the new round of overseas expansion, the proportion of overseas income is expected to reach or even surpass the level before the financial crisis, and further realize the grand vision of “Made in China, equipped globally”.

In terms of subdivided industries, based on the "planning," Northeast Securities conducted a detailed analysis of the subdivided industries such as excavators, cranes, bulldozers, concrete machinery, and forklifts.

——Excavator: Import substitution and speed-up excavator is the largest subdivided product market for construction machinery, and there is plenty of room for growth in the industry. As far as the Chinese market is concerned, foreign brands still dominate. At present, major domestic companies, such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and Shanhe Intelligent, are rushing to expand their production capacity and occupy the market share of excavators. The market share of domestic companies will gradually increase, while the market share of foreign companies will be compressed.

——Loader: The industry’s competitive landscape is more stable than that of excavators. The market share of the leading loader industry has steadily increased. From 2006 to 2009, the total load of the top three loaders has increased by 6 percentage points. .

The market shares of Liugong and Xiagong increased by 3.7%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively. It is estimated that the export of loaders will rebound rapidly after 2011, and the industry demand will maintain steady growth. The annual demand growth during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period will be 10%-20%.

- Cranes: Maintaining Steady Growth in Recent Years China is currently focusing on truck cranes. Last year, the crane industry’s sales share was further concentrated to leading companies, and Zoomlion, Liugong, Sany Heavy Industry and other five companies accounted for over 90% of the automotive crane market. At present, the development plans of major companies: By the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the annual output value of Xugong Machinery's planned crane business will reach 40 billion yuan, and that of Sany Heavy Industry will be 32 billion to 400 billion yuan. Zoomlion and Liugong also Expansion of crane production capacity, Liugong's annual output value is planned to be more than 10 billion yuan - Bulldozer: Shantui shares rank first in comparison with other construction machinery sub-sectors such as loaders, excavators, etc., bulldozer industry market capacity is relatively small, and mountains The push shares are one of the largest in the industry, but their profitability is highly sensitive to the price of raw materials such as steel and the gross margin of products is low.

——Concrete Machinery: The gross profit margin ranked high for the first year. Influenced by real estate regulation and control, the output growth of concrete machinery ranked behind in the large-scale engineering machinery industry. However, in the long term, the urbanization process will promote the steady growth of real estate and infrastructure investment; at the same time, compared with developed countries, the proportion of commercial concrete in China's total concrete is still low, and the demand for the industry will continue to grow steadily.

The gross profit rate of concrete machinery also tops the list in construction machinery products. Currently, market major competitors Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion jointly occupy more than 80% of the market share in the market, and the competitive landscape is stable. New industry entrants such as Xugong Machinery, Shantui Shares and Liugong are eyeing, but their short-term impact on the industry small.

- Forklift trucks: The outlook for the industry is optimistically benefited from the development trend of the domestic logistics industry and the replacement of machinery by hand. The average annual demand growth of the forklift industry is expected to remain at around 30%. However, similar to the bulldozer industry, the profitability of the forklift industry is highly sensitive to raw materials such as steel, and the gross profit rate of products is relatively low.

At present, the market share of listed companies in Anhui Heli is relatively high; however, due to relatively low barriers to entry in the industry and new entrants, such as Shanhe Intelligence and Liugong, competition is fierce.