Analysis of Development Trend of Industrial Robot Market

Two factors drive the rapid growth of China's industrial robot market

The first driving force is machinery instead of labor. The reason mainly comes from two aspects: one is the shortage of low-end labor supply. After 80 and 90 have become the main force of the current labor market, compared to 60,70, they appealed more, one of the significant changes is that fewer and fewer people are willing to engage in low wages, monotonous duplication, and poor environment Work, resulting in insufficient supply of low-end labor, every year-end and early-end of this phenomenon of "migrant workers shortage" in the coastal areas is particularly evident, employers are more and more inclined to use robots instead of artificial, engaged in such work. The second is the continuous improvement of the substitution of artificial robots for industrial robots. On the one hand, labor wages have risen. Since the reform and opening up, the average annual wages of urban employment in China have basically maintained a double-digit growth rate. By 2010, it has exceeded 5,000 US dollars. Moreover, due to the shortage of low-end labor supply, migrant workers' wages have risen faster than urban workers in recent years. On the other hand, the price of robots continues to decline. The decline in the price of robots is not only an international trend, but also because major international giants have set up assembly lines in China to reduce the cost and price of ontology. Following ABB, Yaskawa and Kuka began to build assembly lines in China and put into production in 2013. The final production of the two companies in China will total 11,000 units, which is equivalent to nearly half of China's 2011 industrial robot demand. Kawasaki also announced on December 24, 2012 that it will build an assembly line in China.

The second driving force is industrial upgrading. During the process of economic transition in countries such as Japan and South Korea, the economic growth rate has dropped dramatically. Japan’s GDP has declined from 9.22% in 1956-1973 to 3.95% in 1974-1991, and the industrial structure has also seen three Changes: First, the proportion of the traditional heavy chemical manufacturing industry in the economic aggregate has gradually shrunk, the reorganization and consolidation in the industry have been significantly strengthened, and the second is the rapid expansion of high value-added, technology-intensive new industries, mechanization, automation and intelligence. The large-scale popularity of chemical equipment has led to a significant increase in business productivity and competitiveness. Third, the proportion of service industries has risen and consumer upgrades have coexisted.

In contrast, China’s current economic development is similar to Japan’s in the early 1970s. The increase in labor costs, energy shortages, lack of resources, and serious environmental pollution, timely adjustment of the economic structure, and vigorous efforts to develop knowledge- and technology-intensive industries and promote upgrading are the keys to China’s economic success. The key to the middle-income trap, and the transformation of the economic structure and industrial upgrading require a large number of automated equipment.

Engineer bonuses are impressive

As in other industries, Chinese robotics companies fight for prices and services when they compete with foreign countries, but we think these are mere appearances. With the core components (reducer, servomotor, controller) controlled by people, the price of imported parts not lower than that of foreign counterparts, and the cost of raw materials imported from imported parts and components that account for up to 85% of the robot body, the reason is traceable. The advantages of price and service can be attributed to the abundant supply of engineers and the lower price of engineers, which is the bonus of engineers.

With the bonus of engineers, in the field of robot system integration, there are obvious cost advantages in application software modification and after-sales service. In the field of ontology production, the software can be modified at the bottom and the bottom software can be customized to meet the end customers. The integrator requirements have obvious cost advantages.

From the perspective of the continuous increase in the number of students in our country and the proportion of higher education, the follow-up supply of engineers will still be relatively abundant.

Currently, the average annual salary of engineers in the domestic robotics industry is nearly 80,000 yuan. The average annual salary of engineers in the robotics industry in Europe and Japan is about 400,000 yuan. According to the past growth of the salaries of engineers in Europe, Japan, and China, it is assumed that the average salary of European and Japanese engineers will increase by 1.5% annually. With an average wage increase of 10% per year, the bonus of our engineers can be maintained for 21 years. It is pessimistic assuming that the average annual increase in the salaries of engineers in China is 15%, so that the bonus for engineers in China can also be maintained for 14 years.

Huge market space

Since 2000, as the new line of China's auto industry has been continuously put into production, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the electronics industry has continued to be high, and the number of industrial robots used in China has rapidly increased. In 2011, 22,577 new industrial robots were installed in China, a year-on-year increase. 50.7%, the fastest growth rate in the world, and the third highest demand in the world. As of the end of 2011, the scale of China's industrial robot inventory has increased from 500 in 1999 to 74,317 units, accounting for 6% of global reserves, ranking fifth in the rankings after Japan, the United States, Germany, and South Korea.

Compared with developed countries, China's manufacturing robot density (ie, the number of industrial robots installed per 10,000 workers) is still very low, only 21, not only can not be compared with developed countries, is still lower than the global average of 55, there will be substantial future Room for improvement. At the end of 2011, there were 40.88 million employees in China's manufacturing industry. Assuming that the density of China's manufacturing industrial robots is equivalent to the global average of 55, 225,000 industrial robots are needed. Currently, there are 74,000 robots in China, and then there will be new industrial robots. 15.1 million units.

At present, the average price of industrial robots in the world is more than 300,000 yuan. We judge the price of domestic industrial robots to be downward. Assuming an average price of 250,000 yuan in the future, the scale of industrial robots corresponding to China's manufacturing industry will be close to 38 billion yuan. If we count the system, The market size of the corresponding industrial robots has reached 114 billion yuan (measured in terms of system size is three times that of the body).

Currently in China, Shenyang Xinsong Robot, Anhui Eft, and Guangzhou CNC are the first echelons of domestic robot manufacturers. Among them, Shenyang Xinsong has the background of Shenyang Institute of Automation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and its research and development capability is at the leading position in China; Anhui Eft Backed by Chery Automobile, there are customer resource advantages; Guangzhou CNC has its own advantages of CNC system and servo motor. But overall, the competitiveness of local robot companies is still relatively weak. The domestic 80% market is dominated by multinational brands such as ABB, Fanuc, Yaskawa and Kuka.

No matter if it is an ontology or system integration, foreign robot companies can achieve a scale of about 10 billion yuan. In other words, the total scale of ontology and system integration can achieve 20 billion yuan. In 2012, the size of Xinsong robot, the leading enterprise in China, was only 1 billion yuan, and it will grow several times in the future.