The price adjustment window opened in October and the rate of change in the three places fell into negative values

Recently, the international oil prices continued to decline, driving the three places to change the rate of crude oil all the way down to negative values, the domestic refined oil "three consecutive up" is also expected to be reduced to expectations. A number of analysts believe that if crude oil continues its current price, domestic oil prices in the middle of October will usher in the fourth time during the year. The drop in oil price hopes aggravated the market's wait-and-see attitude. Under the lack of demand, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have begun to decline.

After the introduction of the third round of quantitative easing policy in the United States, international crude oil prices appeared to be riding a “roller coaster”, and even after rising for two days, they fell sharply for four days. Although market investors’ optimism about the European debt crisis outlook and economic situation increased on the 21st, The momentum of this series of decline has eased, but the weekly decline is still more than 6%, of which New York oil prices fell 6.11 US dollars, a decrease of 6.17%; Brent oil prices fell 5.24 US dollars, a decrease of 4.49%.

Driven by the drop in international oil prices, the rate of change of crude oil in the three places with reference to domestic refined oil price adjustments has been negative for the first time since July 13. "Economic Information Daily (microblogging)" reporter learned from the bulk product e-commerce platform Treasure Island, September 21, the three places (Sinta, Dubai, Brent DTD) crude oil prices in the past 22 days at 112.96 US dollars a barrel, Compared with September 7, the benchmark price fell by 0.32%. The change rates of crude oil in the three places monitored by a number of agencies including Zhuochuang Information, Xiwang Energy and Zhongyu Information have all broken zero.

“For most OPEC countries, 100 US dollars / barrel is its psychological price. OPEC's position is a great negative for the crude oil market. It is expected that in the next few months, international crude oil is hard to be like the United States before the first two quantitative easing monetary policy. When it rises as sharply, crude oil prices may fluctuate. Before entering the month of October, crude oil is facing a greater downside risk, said Zhong Jintao analyst Wang Jintao.

Treasurer Island analyst Dong Lizhu also believes that if the macroeconomic data in the later period continues to be sluggish, international crude oil prices may enter a downtrend channel in the context of a severe setback in investor confidence. October 10 will meet the conditions of the domestic product oil price adjustment 22 working days, but the three places crude oil rate of change can not meet the price adjustment conditions, is expected to delay the time of price adjustment, such as crude oil continues the current price range, October 14 to 15 Around the same time, the rate of change in the three places will reach -4%, at which time the fourth downward adjustment window will open.

The emergence of hopes of lowering oil prices has made the domestic market stand out. Although Sanqiu is the peak of oil use, downstream traders have a limited willingness to purchase and are still consuming up-front inventory, setting aside demand, and weak market buying and selling. Affected by this, the sales progress of major units such as PetroChina and Sinopec has become increasingly unsatisfactory. After that, the “tug-of-war” between buyers and sellers has gradually evolved into a buyer’s dominant market and the pressure on gasoline and diesel prices began to decline.

Zhongyu information monitoring data shows that as of September 21, the average price of gasoline and diesel wholesales of PetroChina and Sinopec's sales companies in 26 major cities in China is: 100# gasoline is 10033 yuan/ton, and 0# diesel is 8692 yuan/ton, including diesel The average price fell by 20 yuan/ton in one week, while the local refinery's gasoline transaction price dropped by around 50 to 100 yuan/ton.

From the terminal retail point of view, the recent decline in temperature after the car began to reduce air-conditioning oil, the overall demand showed a steady decline. According to the information of interest-benefit data, the sales index of gasoline in domestic gas stations in the first half of September was 46, slightly lower than the normal level of 50, and the sales index in the second half of August was 52, indicating that the retail volume of gasoline declined.

The upcoming National Day holiday is the first free highway holiday. It is expected that the concentrated peak period of the tour will support the terminal demand of gasoline around the country. This phenomenon will begin to become prominent at the end of September, and the overall demand in the second half of September may be Steady recovery, pre-holiday gasoline prices will remain strong.

However, the demand side of diesel is still not optimistic. “At present, whether the main or local refineries are operating at a high level, the processing volume of the two major companies will still increase slightly this month. The supply of gasoline and diesel will increase, and this trend will become even more pronounced in the fourth quarter. The increase will gradually ease the shortage of resources in some regions. Coupled with the fact that the market is looking at an empty state, short-term diesel prices will face a greater risk of decline,” explained Ma Yan, an analyst at Zhongyu Information. At the same time, most of the main sales tasks were completed poorly. At the end of the month, they were forced by sales pressure, which also exacerbated the possible downside of diesel prices.