Bus increase narrows the school bus market has returned to rational

According to the Bus Branch of the China Highway Society, the average growth rate of the bus industry in May was 7.39%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous month, and the total increase was only 1,286. Affected by the declining business climate, three small passenger car companies, including Hebei Changlu, have stopped production.

According to data published by the Highway Society’s Bus Branch, in May, 50 major passenger car manufacturers in China sold a total of 18,700 passenger cars, which further narrowed the year-on-year increase to 7.39%. From January to May, the cumulative number of passenger cars sold was 90,500, a year-on-year increase of 9.21%, of which, the sales of large passenger cars were 29,300, an increase of 10.38%, the sales of medium-sized passenger cars were 29,200, an increase of 11.82%, and the sales of light buses were 32,000, a year-on-year increase. 5.94%.

Lu Zhenqing, deputy secretary-general of the Road Society Bus Association, told the “First Financial Daily” reporter that even though passenger car sales are still increasing in May, the two curves are getting closer and closer, and the year-on-year increase continues to shrink. Among them, the sales volume of 23 companies showed a downward trend year-on-year, and the overall situation was in a weak position.

It is worth noting that after the explosive growth at the beginning of the year, the school bus market has gradually returned to rationality.

According to statistics from the Institute of Highway Passenger Cars, a total of 22 of the 50 major bus manufacturers currently involved in school bus manufacturing, and the school bus sales in May were 1537 vehicles. Among them, Yutong, Baoding Chang'an, and Zhongtong Bus were the three leading companies. Yutong has obvious advantages. The sales of school buses from January to May were 3019, accounting for 30.12% of the total sales of school buses. In the first five months of this year, the above 22 companies sold 10022 school buses, which accounted for 11.07% of the total sales, and the proportion continued to fall.

In this regard, Zhen Zhenqing believes that the "School Safety Regulations" clearly states that the school bus is only a supplement to the public transportation system. Therefore, the market size of the school bus should be re-evaluated and the expectations are too high and unrealistic.

According to data from the Highway Society’s Bus Branch, the sales of domestic school buses in January this year reached 1,652, which was approximately one-quarter of the school bus sales for the entire year. In the following February, the school bus sales reached 2,925 units, which accounted for 20.50% of the total sales volume, and drove the domestic passenger car market to hit the highest monthly sales record in the industry in the past 10 years, reaching 14,267 units, a year-on-year increase of 90.99%. However, since March, the growth rate of the domestic school bus market has slowed down significantly. From January to April, China's 50 major bus companies sold 8490 school buses, which accounted for 11.86% of the total sales of domestic passenger cars during the same period, which fell by 2.4 percentage points over the previous two months.

Lou Zhenqing further pointed out that under the influence of the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, the passenger car market will not be able to stand alone this year and the development prospects are not optimistic.