Commercial vehicle recovery hopes that rural market companies can restore profitability
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In October last year, the state issued the "4 trillion" investment plan. Many investment institutions and industry research institutes have undergone a "turnover" change in the commercial vehicle market in 2009.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, of the RMB 4 trillion cakes, 1.5 trillion yuan will be invested in the construction of “Tiegongjiâ€. For example, the Ministry of Communications estimates that the investment scale of fixed assets for transportation will reach RMB 1 trillion annually during the next two years. The Ministry of Railways plans to invest more than 3.5 trillion yuan in national railway investment in the next three years. These measures will directly drive the demand for commercial vehicles. In addition to the 4 trillion investment plan announced by the central government, local governments have also issued local economic stimulus plans totaling nearly 30 trillion yuan. The commercial vehicle market outlook seems to be infinitely bright.
However, the ugly sales data of the commercial vehicle market from January to May this year did not reveal the pulling effect of the “4 trillion†investment. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in the first half of this year, the production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 1,137,400 units and 1,295.9 thousand units, respectively, and the production volume only slightly increased by 0.62% year-on-year, and the sales volume also decreased by 1.56%. At the same time, in the first half of this year, the production and sales of passenger cars increased 15.61% and 21.2% year-on-year.
The continued popularity of passenger car sales has a policy stimulus effect. This year, the sales performance of commercial vehicles has been sluggish, and it has its own particularities. On July 1, last year, the National III emission standards were formally implemented in the heavy truck industry. According to the experience of countries such as Europe, Japan, and the United States, commercial vehicle companies will have a period of unsatisfactory sales after the technology upgrade. Taking into account the relatively high cost of the State III heavy trucks, dealers have reserved a large number of commercial vehicles with the National II emission standard before July 1 last year, which has resulted in a higher sales base for commercial vehicles in the same period last year. Since this year, affected by the global financial crisis, the commercial vehicle market has been unsatisfactory, and dealers’ inventory has become a burden, increasing the difficulty of the operation.
Although the state has introduced a “4 trillion†investment plan, and commercial vehicle companies throughout the country have paid great attention, many of the “4 trillion†investment projects are subject to scientific research, environmental assessment, and certification. Tendering, and then put into construction, this takes some time. Therefore, it is expected that the pulling effect on the commercial vehicle market may not reach the fourth quarter of this year, and it will not begin until the fourth quarter later.
In the first half of this year, the "4 trillion" investment drove the "castle", the country has introduced three important policies to support the development of commercial vehicles, namely "agricultural vehicle swap", "replacement of old" and "light card micro-card to the countryside. ". From the policy point of view, the central government has already considered the rural market as the “blue sea†for the development of commercial vehicles at the moment, and hopes that through the development of the rural market, the consumption of commercial vehicles will be driven ahead of the “4 trillion†investment pull effect.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, investment in rural fixed assets increased by 29.4% in the first quarter of this year. For the first time in 12 years, the rate of rural investment growth was faster than that of urban areas, reflecting the tilt of 4 trillion investment in rural infrastructure. In the “4 trillion†investment plan disclosed by the National Development and Reform Commission, it is clearly stated that about 20,000 kilometers of rural roads should be built. In order to increase the demand for trucks by farmers, some related supporting policies of the government are also treating the disease. The Ministry of Finance announced the “Special Measures for the Management of Rural Logistics Service System Development Funds†on June 10, proposing to use subsidies to subsidize and subsidize loans. We will improve the distribution network system in rural areas by means of financial subsidies and other methods, speed up the construction of rural commodity distribution centers, and improve product distribution capabilities. The establishment and improvement of the rural logistics system will directly stimulate the demand for commercial vehicles.
With sound infrastructure, it will naturally awaken the desire of farmers to buy cars. In the first half of this year, the increase in sales of micro-producers with rural areas as the main market reached 50%, which is a good example. For farmers who grow grain and produce agricultural and sideline products, light trucks and micro-cards may be more in line with their needs.
While investing and stimulating the car to the countryside, the light truck will also usher in the upgrading of the National III emission standards. The advance purchasing behavior brought about by technical upgrading has been reflected in the sales data of the previous May, but it is lower than expected.
However, from the current situation of the manufacturers to prepare, due to the previous generation of heavy truck country III there have been some differences in technical standards, so consumers and manufacturers have a certain reservation attitude for the light truck country III replacement. In addition, due to the inadequacy of oil preparation, the industry expects that the time for the replacement of Light Trucks III may be postponed from July 1 this year. Once all conditions are met, the full launch of Light Trucks III will play a decisive role in increasing the sales volume of commercial vehicles.
However, the gross profit rate of light trucks and micro cards is lower than that of heavy trucks. Under the circumstance that heavy trucks are unlikely to improve, the increase in the sales volume of light trucks and micro cards can restore the decline in profitability of commercial vehicle companies. It is also necessary to observe calmly. .